The deadline for effective global decarbonization has effectively been missed, with BP’s latest annual outlook concluding that the 2050 net-zero goal is “unlikely” to be achieved. The energy major has revised its long-term forecasts upward for both oil and gas consumption, a stark acknowledgment that the world is currently not transitioning fast enough.
BP’s new projections for oil consumption in 2050 have been adjusted upward by 8%, now expected to reach 83 million barrels per day (b/d), up from the previous estimate of 77 million b/d. The demand for natural gas is also forecast to remain stubbornly high, projected at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, BP has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now predicting a peak of 103 million b/d in 2030.
A major catalyst for this slow pace is the renewed focus on national energy security, driven by geopolitical instability. BP’s chief economist points to the intensifying effects of the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and rising trade tariffs. This security-first mandate risks pushing countries to favor domestically produced fossil fuels over imported alternatives, slowing the overall energy transition, despite the push for some low-carbon ‘electrostates.’
The consequences of maintaining the current slow path are severe: BP’s modeling shows cumulative carbon emissions are set to breach the critical 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s, significantly increasing the future economic and social costs of climate mitigation. To hit the 2050 net-zero target, oil demand must see a radical and immediate decline, dropping to approximately 35 million b/d by that date.
Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity, oil is forecast to remain the single largest source of primary global energy supply for most of the next two decades, holding a 30% share in 2035. While renewables are growing from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035, they are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s, illustrating the deep, structural nature of the delay.