Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s political scene has been largely subdued under martial law. However, as discussions intensify about ending the war, political maneuvering has begun to resurface, with tensions rising among key figures in Kyiv.
Recent weeks have seen accusations flying between political factions, with critics suggesting President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s administration is prioritizing elections over the war effort. At the same time, opposition leaders have been making strategic moves abroad, fueling speculation about a return to political competition.
The shifting dynamics appear to be influenced by growing expectations that the United States, particularly under a potential Donald Trump presidency, is pushing for negotiations to conclude the conflict. Reports suggest that Trump’s team is interested in seeing Ukraine hold a presidential election by the end of the year—especially if a ceasefire with Moscow can be secured.
Former President Petro Poroshenko has been at the center of international outreach, meeting with foreign officials, though he denies any electoral ambitions. His European Solidarity Party has accused Zelenskiy of sidelining opposition figures instead of focusing on military success. Similarly, ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has increased her visibility, meeting EU leaders and challenging government actions, including the detention of a general over a failed military operation.
Adding to the turmoil, Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, a potential presidential contender, has accused a Zelenskiy-appointed military administrator of obstructing his work. The president’s team has dismissed the allegations, but the friction underscores growing political divisions.
Political analysts suggest that many factions are preparing for an election campaign, though there is little indication that Zelenskiy’s camp is among them. Experts argue that calling an election now could fracture national unity and create logistical challenges, given the displacement of millions and the ongoing occupation of large portions of Ukraine.
Zelenskiy, whose term would have ended in May 2024, maintains that elections can only be held after the war and martial law are lifted. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to delegitimize Zelenskiy, claiming he is unfit to negotiate without a renewed electoral mandate. However, polls indicate that despite declining approval ratings, Zelenskiy remains widely recognized as Ukraine’s legitimate leader.
One wildcard in Ukraine’s evolving political equation is Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of the armed forces who was recently appointed as ambassador to London. Though he has not signaled any political aspirations, Zaluzhnyi enjoys broad popularity, and speculation is growing over whether he could align with an established political force. His newly released book, My War, has become a bestseller in Kyiv, cementing his public appeal.
Public sentiment remains firmly against holding elections before the war concludes, with national security and military success seen as the top priorities. As Ukraine navigates its most critical phase in the conflict, political tensions will likely continue to simmer beneath the surface, awaiting the right moment to erupt.